After a US general’s letter predicted war with China over Taiwan in two years, a prominent Republican in Congress believes the possibilities of war are “extremely high.” General Mike Minihan, director of the Air Mobility Command, wrote to its 110,000 airmen on Friday: “My intuition tells me we will fight in 2025.” The incoming House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Michael McCaul, said Fox News on Sunday. “I hope he’s wrong…” He’s correct, though.”
General Minihan’s views do not reflect the Pentagon, but they reveal worry at the highest levels of the US military regarding a hypothetical Chinese move to rule Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. Minihan claimed that 2024 presidential elections in the US and Taiwan might allow China to intervene militarily. “They are going to look at a military invasion in my judgement” if China fails to capture Taiwan bloodlessly. “We must be ready,” McCaul stated. He accused President Joe Biden’s Democratic government of displaying weakness following the botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which might lead to conflict with China. “The probabilities are quite high that we might have a confrontation with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific,” McCaul added. The White House did not respond to McCaul’s statements. Adam Smith, the House Armed Services Committee’s senior Democrat, called Minihan’s judgment “very implausible.” Smith told Fox News Sunday that conflict with China is “not just not inevitable, but is exceedingly improbable.” China’s condition is hazardous. But I believe generals need to be extremely cautious about declaring we’re going to war, it’s inevitable”.
Smith said the US must be able to discourage China from attacking Taiwan, “but I’m totally sure we can avoid that confrontation if we adopt the correct approach.” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated earlier this month that he believed that increased Chinese military action in the Taiwan Strait indicated an imminent invasion of the island. On Saturday, a Pentagon spokesperson claimed the general’s views were “not emblematic of the department’s perspective on China”.