Stalled Negotiations and High Stakes
Previous negotiations have failed partly due to these high stakes. The question of how to permanently end the fighting has been deferred to the final stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday. Transitioning from talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire, Biden acknowledged, would be “difficult.” This transition is critical to the success or failure of the latest deal.
Netanyahu’s Calculated Approach
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strong domestic reasons for approaching this deal methodically. Phase one, as outlined by Biden, involves the release of dozens of hostages, both living and deceased. This would be widely welcomed in Israel, where the failure to free all those held by Hamas is seen by many as a glaring moral stain on Netanyahu’s management of the war.
However, Hamas is unlikely to release its most politically sensitive hostages—women, the wounded, and the elderly—without guarantees that Israel won’t restart the war once they are home. Leaks reported by Israeli media suggest Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel would keep its options open, potentially resuming fighting until Hamas is “eliminated.” This stance is likely the minimum demand of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, without whose support he risks early elections and the continuation of his corruption trial.
The Challenge of Permanent Ceasefire
Netanyahu needs to keep his long-term options open to gain the support of his coalition for any initial hostage deal. Conversely, Hamas leaders are likely to demand permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront. Previous deals have collapsed over such differences. Bridging this gap now will depend on Netanyahu’s maneuvering with his hard-right allies to find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas and on how far Hamas leaders are prepared to consider these alternatives.
Netanyahu spoke over the weekend about the destruction of Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” to ensure the group no longer poses a threat to Israel. While few dispute that Hamas has suffered major losses to its military infrastructure, there’s no sign Israel has killed or captured its top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. Their freedom in Gaza would be a political disaster for Netanyahu.
Political Implications
Yanir Cozin, a diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station GLZ, believes Netanyahu won’t end the war until he can frame it as a success. “A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure,” he said. “If, eight months on, you haven’t achieved any of the war goals—not finishing Hamas, not bringing all the hostages back, not securing the borders—then he doesn’t want to end the war. But he also understands that he cannot leave it until the next Israeli election in 2026.”
Netanyahu’s hope may lie in being able to claim the exile or neutralization of Sinwar and Deif. But Hamas is unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of its top figures. Clear splits are emerging between Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza, complicating the dynamics further.
Civilian Concerns
The stakes are high for the civilian populations on both sides. Tens of thousands of Israelis displaced after the Hamas attacks on October 7 are watching their prime minister’s next move. Among them is Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three from Sderot, who fled her home the morning after the attacks. She refuses to return home until Sinwar and Deif are no longer free.
“This ceasefire will kill us,” she told EMC News. “We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped—all this will happen again.”
Future Prospects
As the ceasefire plan unfolds, the future of the region hangs in the balance. Each side must weigh the high stakes of survival and political legacy, with the prospect of peace hanging on the ability of leaders to navigate this perilous path. The outcome will shape not only their political fortunes but also the lives of countless civilians caught in the crossfire.
