According to government figures, China’s GDP expanded by 3 percent in 2022, one of the lowest results in the country’s modern history. The Chinese economy grew by 2.9% in the fourth quarter, down from 3.9% in the third quarter, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The Chinese economy in 2022 experienced its worst performance since 1976, the final year of Mao Zedong’s three-decade dictatorship, excluding the year 2020.
The Chinese government had established a growth target of 5.5%, but dropped it from public statements when economic conditions deteriorated. Still, the fourth-quarter expansion exceeded the predictions of many experts. “The results outperformed forecasts across the board, which reduces the growth risks for Q1-23.” Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at UBP in Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera: “We have reduced our growth prediction for 2023 to 6%.” However, according to Casanova, the most recent official data indicate warning flags for long-term development, including the first official population fall since 1961. In particular, China suffered a lasting loss in potential production due to low fertility rates over three lengthy years of zero-COVID, resulting in a significant population drop. End of last year, China’s draconian “zero-COVID” pandemic policy impacted severely on the world’s second-largest economy, with lockdowns stifling economic activity in major industrial hubs like as Shanghai and Guangzhou. A month ago, in response to huge nationwide protests, Beijing abruptly altered its approach. China reopened its borders earlier this month after three years of international isolation and after removing the majority of its severe restrictions. The reopening of the country was followed by an outbreak of infections that overloaded hospitals, crematoriums, and mortuaries.
Since early December, health officials have documented almost 60,000 COVID-related deaths, but experts from outside the country and worldwide experience indicate that the true death toll is likely to be far higher.
The senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, expects China’s economy to rise modestly in the first quarter of this year. Garcia-Herrero said Reporters, “We still need to see the rebound coming for the first quarter” before estimating an overall growth rate of about 5.5% for 2023. “I do not anticipate a strong first quarter, perhaps a 4 percent increase, which is comparable to the same period last year.”
